North Huntingdon, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

223
FXUS61 KPBZ 142318
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
718 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will promote dry weather through early Sunday
amidst a nominal warming trend. The approach of a cold front
Sunday will increase shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Mostly clear with patchy fog tonight

---------------------------------------------------------------

The loss of diurnal heating and dry advection will continue to
erode lingering cumulus this evening, resulting in a clear
overnight sky. As area wind weakens/decouples, strong
radiational cooling is likely to foster lower overnight
temperature, especially north of Pittsburgh. Patchy fog favoring
river valley may develop between 1am and 7am before insolation
and mixing ends the fog potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Mainly dry through Saturday night, with a few ridge showers
- Hot weather returns
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During this period, weak surface ridging from Canadian high pressure
will generally be in place across the Upper Ohio Valley, with some
modest troughing in the mid-levels. Model soundings point to a warm
layer aloft, which along with the surface ridge should provide a
mainly dry pattern. The ridges to the east and southeast of
Pittsburgh could see a few isolated to scattered showers/storms both
Friday and Saturday afternoon however, as modest upslope flow and
convergence may help to overcome capping locally.

850mb temperatures will show a slow upward trend, with model means
of around 19C by Saturday. This should lead to an uptick in daytime
non-ridge highs back into the upper 80s for many on Friday, and to
around 90 on Saturday. Dewpoints should remain in the 60s through
this period though, keeping heat index values in check. Experimental
NWS Heat Risk levels do remain in the Moderate range at most through
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Hot on Sunday, with better shower and storm chances
- Unsettled for the first half of next week
- Temperatures returning to seasonable levels with time
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Ensembles are in good agreement that a large ridge remains centered
over the central CONUS/Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Westward
retrogression of this ridge is then indicated across the Plains and
towards the Rockies by Thursday.

Sunday remains a hot one, with many locations reaching the lower 90s
for highs, and some heat index values in the mid-90s in valleys and
urban locations. A cold front is still progged to accompany a
shortwave that will drop down on the eastern periphery of the ridge
to our west. At least scattered showers and storms will accompany
the boundary, with chances highest north of Pittsburgh closer to
upper support and more favorable frontal timing. Precipitable
water mean values of 1.6 to 1.7 inches suggests some downpours
are possible, but the setup for a larger flooding threat does
not appear to be there. Also, with a progged lack of deep shear,
an organized severe weather threat does not appear likely.
Extended machine- learning guidance suggests a low-end threat at
most at this point - if a dry layer aloft can establish,
perhaps isolated downbursts could be possible.

Depending on the timing of the front, a few showers/storms could
linger on Monday, most likely in the ridges, and then the boundary
may nearly stall out near or just south of the Upper Ohio Valley.
Slow height falls associated with the retrograding ridge may
establish zonal flow or a shallow trough over the northeast CONUS,
with cluster analysis showing varying scenarios. The boundary would
then waver into the midweek period, with shortwaves in northwest
flow providing shower and storm chances at least into Wednesday,
before perhaps a decrease in chances by Thursday.

After the Sunday heat, the height falls and rain chances point to a
slow downward trend in temperatures, with more seasonable readings
by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High confidence VFR forecast for a majority of the TAF period
under the influence of high pressure with light and variable
wind. Overnight will feature clear skies while daytime will see
the rise/fall of diurnal scattered to briefly broken cumulus
that may feature an hour or two of MVFR heights.

The biggest uncertainty is tethered to the degree of pre-dawn
fog development for terminals near river valleys or SE of
Pittsburgh where less daytime drying occurred. HLG/FKL are the
most likely sites to see visibility fall lower than forecasted
due to their river proximity.

Outlook...
Outside of low probability river valley fog, there is high
confidence in VFR with dry weather through Sunday morning with
New England high pressure. The approach of a cold front within
developing NW flow may increase convective potential Sunday
afternoon/evening.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frazier
NEAR TERM...Frazier
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...Frazier